Room for ChanceThe science of chance

Science collection

Statistics and simulation

Read data with the right denominator, measure uncertainty and separate exploration from prediction.

Start with Monte Carlo Simulation: Learn Probability by Repeating the Model, then follow the questions below. Each guide includes a worked explanation, a figure and routes to an experiment or calculator.

Statistics and simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation: Learn Probability by Repeating the Model

Build a trustworthy probability simulation with a defined event, reproducible generator, uncertainty estimate and exact benchmark where available.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

Can Statistical Tests Prove Lottery Numbers Are Random?

Learn what frequency, runs and goodness-of-fit tests can detect, and why passing tests is not proof of fairness or unpredictability.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

Expected vs Observed Lottery Frequencies: Reading a Table Properly

Learn expected counts, standard deviations and selection effects so a lottery frequency table describes data without pretending to predict the future.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

Monte Carlo Error: Why a Million Trials Can Still Be Too Few

Estimate simulation precision, understand zero observed successes and distinguish absolute error from relative error for rare events.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

Multiple Comparisons: Why Random Data Keeps Producing “Signals”

Calculate how repeated testing creates false alarms and learn why a pattern found after a broad search needs a different interpretation.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

The Law of Large Numbers Does Not Make a Losing Number Due

See how sample proportions stabilize without future compensation, and why absolute deviations can grow while relative errors shrink.

3 min read · Formula & figure

Statistics and simulation

Why Lottery Backtesting Can Fool You

Spot overfitting, test-set reuse and future leakage, and learn what a fair prospective evaluation of a lottery selection rule would require.

3 min read · Formula & figure